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It's beginning to feel a lot like 2017. Some useful reminders and advice for new comers.
Hype and increasing prices will undoubtedly attract new investors, HODLers, and gamblers. Regardless of how long you've been in crypto, below are a few pieces of information (or reminders) you should consider.
We're still early. Cryptocurrency, including bitcoin, is still in its infancy. Because of this, we will continue to see headlines of hacks, exchange closures, big name investors coming into the space, major institutional adoption, and everything in between. Until crypto is regulated (for better or worse) and even after, there will be bad actors attempting to steal your cryptocurrencies. To that end, think twice when hearing about 'deals' or investments that seem too good to be true. They probably are.
Protection. I often see questions regarding the storage of cryptocurrencies. Not to oversimplify, but as a user, you have ~3 choices to store your cryptocurrency. In order of most secure to least secure:
Cold Storage - From wikipedia: Cold storage refers to storing Bitcoins/Cryptos offline and spending without the private keys controlling them ever being online. This resists theft by hackers and malware, and is often a necessary security precaution especially dealing with large amounts of Bitcoin. If you aren't comfortable manually storing your private key, physical hardware wallets are your best alternative. When possible, buy direct from the manufacturer to avoid any tampering to your new device.
Hot Wallets - From investopedia: The difference between a hot wallet and a cold wallet is that hot wallets are connected to the internet, while cold wallets are not. Hot wallets can be installed onto your mobile device and/or your web browser. Similar to cold storage, these hot wallets will 'store' your crypto and will be accessed to send/receive tokens, execute smart contracts, and conduct other transactions. There are many options to choose from, but MetaMask is as close to an industry standard as it comes, and the developer has recently implemented an ERC-20 token swap function. Again, download directly from the developer if you can.
Exchanges - Exchanges certainly have their own purpose, most notably as an on and off ramp for your fiat currency (e.g., US Dollar, etc). However, when you read headlines like "Bitcoin Hacked for 10 million dollars!" what they usually mean is, a centralized exchange that holds users' cryptocurrencies was hacked and bitcoin was extracted from the exchange's storage. For this reason, exchanges are considered to be less safe than your Hot Wallet and Cold storage alternatives.
Don't be greedy. This is easier said than done, and many veteran traders have learned this the hard way -- some still haven't learned. When prices are only going up, you're going to feel like a million bucks. But things dont go up forever. Ever. (Unless it's the Fed's balance sheet.. har har). Point being, it's okay to take profits along the way up. I guarantee you'll have an opportunity to re-buy those same tokens at a cheaper price, and you'll enjoy them even more the second time around.
Don't spend more than you can afford. Hopefully this goes without saying, but the crypto space is extremely volatile. It is not uncommon to lose your entire investment with just one wrong token/ICO/scam. To that end; just use your common sense. It sounds easy, but when you're making money, sometimes it's hard to see the cliff at the end of the road.
Keep learning. I joined the crypto space because I saw an opportunity to make money. It's been a wild ride, and I've learned a lot more than I've gained (from a monetary perspective). What i didn't expect to happen, was to open pandora's box when it comes to what Bitcoin (specifically) aimed to solve. My thirst for knowledge only expanded when I learned of the opportunity space Ethereum was trying to fill. Compound that with the immutability of blockchain technology, DeFi, smart contracts, data oracles, (and the list goes on); now I'm completely hooked. It's clear to me that blockchain will revolutionize the way we function on the global scale. But many are just now beginning to learn about bBitcoin, and we're ahead of the curve. Which leads me back to point number 1; we're still early.
Sorry for rambling on here; I'm sure more veteran HODLers have already X'd out of this post, which is fine. They likely don't need this information as they have learned these same tips along their own journeys. But for newcomers to the space, I wish I had this foundational knowledge from the get go. Don't be afraid to ask questions on this sub. With the recent implementation of MOON tokens (this is a whole 'nother topic), I've personally noticed more downvotes than normal. But awareness and understanding is critical to adoption, so don't be turned off if you don't get an answer to your questions immediately. There is a wealth of knowledge scattered across the internet, and still a lot of smart people on reddit who are willing to help.
Putting $400M of Bitcoin on your company balance sheet
Also posted on my blog as usual. Read it there if you can, there are footnotes and inlined plots. A couple of months ago, MicroStrategy (MSTR) had a spare $400M of cash which it decided to shift to Bitcoin (BTC). Today we'll discuss in excrutiating detail why this is not a good idea. When a company has a pile of spare money it doesn't know what to do with, it'll normally do buybacks or start paying dividends. That gives the money back to the shareholders, and from an economic perspective the money can get better invested in other more promising companies. If you have a huge pile of of cash, you probably should be doing other things than leave it in a bank account to gather dust. However, this statement from MicroStrategy CEO Michael Saylor exists to make it clear he's buying into BTC for all the wrong reasons:
“This is not a speculation, nor is it a hedge. This was a deliberate corporate strategy to adopt a bitcoin standard.”
Let's unpack it and jump into the economics Bitcoin:
Is Bitcoin money?
No. Or rather BTC doesn't act as money and there's no serious future path for BTC to become a form of money. Let's go back to basics. There are 3 main economic problems money solves: 1. Medium of Exchange. Before money we had to barter, which led to the double coincidence of wants problem. When everyone accepts the same money you can buy something from someone even if they don't like the stuff you own. As a medium of exchange, BTC is not good. There are significant transaction fees and transaction waiting times built-in to BTC and these worsen the more popular BTC get. You can test BTC's usefulness as a medium of exchange for yourself right now: try to order a pizza or to buy a random item with BTC. How many additional hurdles do you have to go through? How many fewer options do you have than if you used a regular currency? How much overhead (time, fees) is there? 2. Unit of Account. A unit of account is what you compare the value of objects against. We denominate BTC in terms of how many USD they're worth, so BTC is a unit of account presently. We can say it's because of lack of adoption, but really it's also because the market value of BTC is so volatile. If I buy a $1000 table today or in 2017, it's roughly a $1000 table. We can't say that a 0.4BTC table was a 0.4BTC table in 2017. We'll expand on this in the next point: 3. Store of Value. When you create economic value, you don't want to be forced to use up the value you created right away. For instance, if I fix your washing machine and you pay me in avocados, I'd be annoyed. I'd have to consume my payment before it becomes brown, squishy and disgusting. Avocado fruit is not good money because avocadoes loses value very fast. On the other hand, well-run currencies like the USD, GBP, CAD, EUR, etc. all lose their value at a low and most importantly fairly predictible rate. Let's look at the chart of the USD against BTC While the dollar loses value at a predictible rate, BTC is all over the place, which is bad. One important use money is to write loan contracts. Loans are great. They let people spend now against their future potential earnings, so they can buy houses or start businesses without first saving up for a decade. Loans are good for the economy. If you want to sign something that says "I owe you this much for that much time" then you need to be able to roughly predict the value of the debt in at the point in time where it's due. Otherwise you'll have a hard time pricing the risk of the loan effectively. This means that you need to charge higher interests. The risk of making a loan in BTC needs to be priced into the interest of a BTC-denominated loan, which means much higher interest rates. High interests on loans are bad, because buying houses and starting businesses are good things.
BTC has a fixed supply, so these problems are built in
Some people think that going back to a standard where our money was denominated by a stock of gold (the Gold Standard) would solve economic problems. This is nonsense. Having control over supply of your currency is a good thing, as long as it's well run. See here Remember that what is desirable is low variance in the value, not the value itself. When there are wild fluctuations in value, it's hard for money to do its job well. Since the 1970s, the USD has been a fiat money with no intrinsic value. This means we control the supply of money. Let's look at a classic poorly drawn econ101 graph The market price for USD is where supply meets demand. The problem with a currency based on an item whose supply is fixed is that the price will necessarily fluctuate in response to changes in demand. Imagine, if you will, that a pandemic strikes and that the demand for currency takes a sharp drop. The US imports less, people don't buy anything anymore, etc. If you can't print money, you get deflation, which is worsens everything. On the other hand, if you can make the money printers go brrrr you can stabilize the price Having your currency be based on a fixed supply isn't just bad because in/deflation is hard to control. It's also a national security risk... The story of the guy who crashed gold prices in North Africa In the 1200s, Mansa Munsa, the emperor of the Mali, was rich and a devout Muslim and wanted everyone to know it. So he embarked on a pilgrimage to make it rain all the way to Mecca. He in fact made it rain so hard he increased the overall supply of gold and unintentionally crashed gold prices in Cairo by 20%, wreaking an economic havoc in North Africa that lasted a decade. This story is fun, the larger point that having your inflation be at the mercy of foreign nations is an undesirable attribute in any currency. The US likes to call some countries currency manipulators, but this problem would be serious under a gold standard.
Currencies are based on trust
Since the USD is based on nothing except the US government's word, how can we trust USD not to be mismanaged? The answer is that you can probably trust the fed until political stooges get put in place. Currently, the US's central bank managing the USD, the Federal Reserve (the Fed for friends & family), has administrative authority. The fed can say "no" to dumb requests from the president. People who have no idea what the fed does like to chant "audit the fed", but the fed is already one of the best audited US federal entities. The transcripts of all their meetings are out in the open. As is their balance sheet, what they plan to do and why. If the US should audit anything it's the Department of Defense which operates without any accounting at all. It's easy to see when a central bank will go rogue: it's when political yes-men are elected to the board. For example, before printing themselves into hyperinflation, the Venezuelan president appointed a sociologist who publicly stated “Inflation does not exist in real life” and instead is a made up capitalist lie. Note what happened mere months after his gaining control over the Venezuelan currency This is a key policy. One paper I really like, Sargent (1984) "The end of 4 big inflations" states:
The essential measures that ended hyperinflation in each of Germany,Austria, Hungary, and Poland were, first, the creation of an independentcentral bank that was legally committed to refuse the government'sdemand or additional unsecured credit and, second, a simultaneousalteration in the fiscal policy regime.
In english: *hyperinflation stops when the central bank can say "no" to the government." The US Fed, like other well good central banks, is run by a bunch of nerds. When it prints money, even as aggressively as it has it does so for good reasons. You can see why they started printing on March 15th as the COVID lockdowns started:
The Federal Reserve is prepared to use its full range of tools to support the flow of credit to households and businesses and thereby promote its maximum employment and price stability goals.
In english: We're going to keep printing and lowering rates until jobs are back and inflation is under control. If we print until the sun is blotted out, we'll print in the shade.
BTC is not gold
Gold is a good asset for doomsday-preppers. If society crashes, gold will still have value. How do we know that? Gold has held value throughout multiple historic catastrophes over thousands of years. It had value before and after the Bronze Age Collapse, the Fall of the Western Roman Empire and Gengis Khan being Gengis Khan. Even if you erased humanity and started over, the new humans would still find gold to be economically valuable. When Europeans d̶i̶s̶c̶o̶v̶e̶r̶e̶d̶ c̶o̶n̶q̶u̶e̶r̶e̶d̶ g̶e̶n̶o̶c̶i̶d̶e̶d̶ went to America, they found gold to be an important item over there too. This is about equivalent to finding humans on Alpha-Centauri and learning that they think gold is a good store of value as well. Some people are puzzled at this: we don't even use gold for much! But it has great properties: First, gold is hard to fake and impossible to manufacture. This makes it good to ascertain payment. Second, gold doesnt react to oxygen, so it doesn't rust or tarnish. So it keeps value over time unlike most other materials. Last, gold is pretty. This might sound frivolous, and you may not like it, but jewelry has actual value to humans. It's no coincidence if you look at a list of the wealthiest families, a large number of them trade in luxury goods. To paraphrase Veblen humans have a profound desire to signal social status, for the same reason peacocks have unwieldy tails. Gold is a great way to achieve that. On the other hand, BTC lacks all these attributes. Its value is largely based on common perception of value. There are a few fundamental drivers of demand:
Means of Exchange: if people seriously start using BTC to buy pizzas, then this creates a real demand for the currency to accomplish the short-term exchanges. As we saw previously, I'm not personally sold on this one and it's currently a negligible fraction of overall demand.
Criminal uses: Probably the largest inbuilt advantage of BTC is that it's anonymous, and so a great way to launder money. Hacker gangs use BTC to demand ransom on cryptolocker type attacks because it's a shared way for an honest company to pay and for the criminals to receive money without going to jail.
Apart from these, it's hard to argue that BTC will retain value throughout some sort of economic catastrophe.
BTC is really risky
One last statement from Michael Saylor I take offense to is this:
“We feel pretty confident that Bitcoin is less risky than holding cash, less risky than holding gold,” MicroStrategy CEO said in an interview
"BTC is less risky than holding cash or gold long term" is nonsense. We saw before that BTC is more volatile on face value, and that as long as the Fed isn't run by spider monkeys stacked in a trench coat, the inflation is likely to be within reasonable bounds. But on top of this, BTC has Abrupt downside risks that normal currencies don't. Let's imagine a few:
A critical software vulnerability is found in the BTC codebase, leading to a possible exploitation.
Xi Jinping decides he's had enough of rich people in China hiding their assets from him and bans BTC.
Some form of bank run takes hold for whatever reason. Because BTC wallets are uninsured, unlike regular banks, this compounds into a Black Tuesday style crash.
Blockchain solutions are fundamentally inefficient
Blockchain was a genius idea. I still marvel at the initial white paper which is a great mix of economics and computer science. That said, blockchain solutions make large tradeoffs in design because they assume almost no trust between parties. This leads to intentionally wasteful designs on a massive scale. The main problem is that all transactions have to be validated by expensive computational operations and double checked by multiple parties. This means waste:
BTC was estimated to use as much electricity as Belgium in 2019. It's hard to trace where the BTC mining comes from, but we can assume it has a huge carbon footprint.
A single transactions is necessarily expensive. A single transaction takes as much electricity as 800,000 VISA transactions, or watching 50,000 hours of youtube videos.
There is a large necessary tax on the transaction, since those checking the transaction extract a few BTC from it to be incentivized to do the work of checking it.
Many design problems can be mitigated by various improvements over BTC, but it remains that a simple database always works better than a blockchain if you can trust the parties to the transaction.
Hi, I have been using CoinBase but recently ran into some issues with their service. I tried to create a Kraken account but because of my place of residence I'm not allowed to use their service. What is the best place I can buy/trade crypto (lowest fees, best security) in WA state?
03-27 11:57 - 'Captains of Industry have some of their imaginary money taken away to cover the gambling losses of the Buttcoin exchange they were using' (en.wikipedia.org) by /u/StartUpTheRotors removed from /r/Bitcoin within 40-45min
About two days ago I bought $1000 of bitcoin, which is the daily limit for Gemini. I wanted to buy more so I tried to deposit cash into my account and be able to get more that way but the transaction was denied and now my Gemini account is showing a negative balance for USD but the money never went through. So now if I deposit the 500 I tried to put in a couple days ago will that zero out the balance and make me loose $500 for no reason? Or will that money just be able to be accessed to trade for crypto?
PUNTO DE PARTIDA PARA NEWBIES EN INVERSIONES. POR DONDE ARRANCAR?
¿Para quién es este post?
Este post está pensado para los que tienen plata y no saben que hacer, los que como mucho hicieron plazos fijos o comprar dolar en home-banking o ir al blue. La idea es dar una breve introducción, que sea llevadera, no muy técnica y en términos sencillos, de que cosas hay que tener en cuenta ahora que se decidieron adentrarse en el mundo de las inversiones. Espero que después de leer esta introducción, les sirva para poner en contexto las preguntas que se tienen que hacer, la información que necesitan investigar y capacitarse, antes de efectivamente ponerse a invertir. Y de yapa por haber leído hasta acá, se llevan el primer consejo: no invertir sin tener bien claro en qué nos estamos metiendo! Antes de arrancar: no confundir inversiones bursátiles con finanzas personales. Las finanzas personales abarcan toda la gestión de ingresos, inversiones, ahorros y gastos en la "microeconomia" de una persona. Acá nos vamos a centrar solamente en la parte de inversiones, en el marco de las finanzas personales.
Primero unas definiciones básicas
Vamos a arrancar con algunos conceptos que pueden parecer medio abstractos sobre el temas de dinero, para después tener una base y poder ir directo a la cuestión de inversiones. Valor tiempo del dinero Lo primero que tenemos que entender es el valor tiempo del dinero, un concepto muy sencillo pero que pocos lo tienen formalizado. Por suerte, es muy fácil de incorporar y de aprender. Puesto de manera sencilla y sin entrar en muchos números: la misma cantidad de dinero vale mas HOY que mañana. Y cuanto mas tiempo pasa, menos vale el mismo dinero. Vale aclarar que no estoy teniendo en cuenta conceptos como devaluación o inflación en este momento, simplemente que el mismo dinero hoy, va a valer mas que mañana. Veamos este concepto con un ejemplo sencillo. Cómo ordenarias según orden de preferencia las siguientes opciones?
Recibir $100 hoy
Recibir $100 mañana
Recibir $100 en 1 mes
Creo que esta claro que el orden dado, es el orden de preferencia de cualquiera de nosotros. La cuestión se pone interesante cuando empezamos a jugar con el monto vs el tiempo. Por ejemplo:
Recibir $100 hoy
Recibir $200 mañana
Recibir $1000 en 12 meses
En este caso ya empiezan a jugar otras variables. Que tan valioso es para mi el dinero hoy vs el dinero en el futuro? En esta valuación entran en juego conceptos que no voy a explicar aca pero son muy interesantes de profundizar, como el concepto de NPV (Net present value o valor presente neto), IRR o TIR (Tasa Interna de Retorno) y tasa de descuento (Discount factor). Riesgo Hay muchas maneras de definir riesgo, pero en este contexto vamos a quedarnos con una definición mas estadística para que sea fácil de entender. El riesgo es una medida de que tanta certeza vamos a tener de nuestro retorno esperado. Por ejemplo, el concepto de una tasa libre de riesgo es un caso extremo: una inversion de rendimiento fijo y conocido de antemano, que, como el nombre lo implica, se considera que tiene no tiene riesgo. Esto se traduce en que el rendimiento esperado es igual al rendimiento efectivo (o realizado) que vamos a tener al final de la inversion. En el caso de inversiones globales, se considera a los bonos del tesoro de EEUU como libre de riesgo. En nuestro caso, podemos tomar a los plazos fijos de los bancos (o mas correctamente los instrumentos de renta fija del tesoro argentino). Una vez establecido el nivel base de riesgo 0, la escala de riesgo va variando a medida que consideramos distintos instrumentos, e incluso dentro de los instrumentos, hay varios atributos para analizar. Para intentar predecir la dispersión alrededor de nuestro retorno esperado, lo que se suele hacer es basarse en la volatilidad histórica del instrumento a analizar. Para dar algunos ejemplos, una acción de un banco Argentino tiene mas riesgo que una acción de un banco de EEUU. Esto se puede analizar coyunturalmente, o se puede mirar las variaciones históricas recientes de los precios. Otra manera de pensar el riesgo, es adoptar la postura de que el mercado es "eficiente" y que los retornos esperados ya reflejan los mayores riesgos. Es decir: a mayor retorno esperado, mayor riesgo. Esto quiere decir que hay menos probabilidad hay de conseguir ese retorno esperado. Dependiendo del instrumento, estos retornos esperados se pueden calcular facilmente como en instrumentos de renta fija (métricas como TIR, paridad, etc) o pueden ser mas difíciles de calcular como en renta variable, aunque tenemos distintos ratios (o múltiplos) que podemos analizar para comparar el precio de una acción con sus fundamentals (que se desprenden de los balances presentados). Creamos o no en la eficiencia del mercado para pricear (determinar el precio de algo) las cosas, es una buena heurística a tener en cuenta que retornos altos suelen estar acompañados de riesgo alto. El corolario de esto es siempre ser escépticos de retornos altos de bajo riesgo, promesas de "plata fácil" y ese tipo de oportunidades. Retorno real vs nominal Una aclaración que nos debemos es distinguir entre retornos reales y retornos nominales. Los retornos nominales son los retornos directos obtenidos sin ningún ajuste. Por ejemplo, invertimos $100 en una acción que en 5 años se convirtieron en $200. Eso nos da un retorno del 100%. Sin embargo, esos $200 probablemente tengan menor poder adquisitivo, ya sea por devaluación (midiendo contra otras monedas) o inflación (midiendo contra bienes). Por ejemplo, si sabemos que en esos 5 años la inflación fue del 50%, nuestro retorno real fue del %50 entonces. Es muy importante siempre medir nuestras inversiones teniendo en cuenta los retornos REALES. Particularmente en pesos, donde la perdida del poder adquisitivo es tan tangible. De hecho, mi recomendación es medir las inversiones en monedas mas estables como el dolar, por defecto. Como dato de color, la inflación del dolar es de aprox. 2% anual.
Receta básica para una inversion
Que componentes tiene una inversion? Estos son los ingredientes mínimos que la componen:
Capital: Monto de dinero para invertir
Retorno: Cual es el % o monto de ganancia sobre el capital que esperamos obtener. Puede ser aproximado.
Riesgo: Medida de que tan probable es que consigamos el retorno esperado. Difícil de estimar exactamente!
Horizonte/plazo: Cuanto tenemos que dejar la plata para maximizar las chances del retorno esperado
Instrumento: El método mediante el cual vamos a invertir
Liquidez: que tan rápido/costoso es entrasalir
Moneda: en que moneda podemos entrasalir de la inversion
Fricciones: gastos/comisiones/impuestos a tener en cuenta
Dados estos ingredientes, vemos que algunos son variables que podemos definir nosotros y otros son interdependientes. Veamos algunos ejemplos:
Si queremos obtener una ganancia de 100 pesos en un plazo fijo con tasa 1% mensual, el resto de las variables quedan prácticamente predefinidas: el riesgo es casi nulo, y por ende el retorno es conocido. El capital es función del retorno en este caso, tenemos que colocar 10k pesos. El horizonte es 1 mes. La liquidez es nula, no podemos retirar el dinero hasta que no termina nuestra inversion. Y la moneda es pesos. Prácticamente no hay gastos ni impuestos que nos importen.
Quiero invertir 10k USD y obtener una rentabilidad de 5% anual durante 2 años. En este caso, un instrumento adecuado para ese tipo de inversion podría ser un bono corporativo en USD. La moneda es en dolares y el hecho de tener un plazo de inversion corto con un rendimiento de 5% anual, nos fija que el riesgo que vamos a tener que correr va a ser moderado (si comparamos con la tasa libre de riesgo o con otros bonos que rinden similares tasas). La liquidez es baja porque los bonos corporativos no se negocian mucho, y el costo de salir antes puede ser moderado, dependiendo del instrumento en sí. Los gastos van a ser los de operar, comisiones al broker, hay que investigar los impuestos respecto a este instrumento.
Si mi objetivo es duplicar un capital de 25k pesos en un mes: para eso podemos utilizar opciones sobre acciones locales, intentando capturar la tendencia en algún papel que hayamos estudiado. Necesitamos conocer en profundidad el instrumento (en este caso opciones) y saber que estamos corriendo un riesgo alto, que vamos a pasar, con alta probabilidad, por periodos de grandes perdidas, incluso llegando a perder todo nuestro capital. La liquidez es alta, podemos salir cuando querramos, pero con alto costo, dada la importancia del timing. Las comisiones van a ser altas, impuestos a renta financiera también.
Depositar mis ahorros en algún instrumento para generar rentabilidades minimas hasta necesitarlos, sin asumir mucho riesgo. Podemos buscar un fondo común de inversion en USD que invierta en bonos LATAM de mas bajo riesgo. O llevar nuestro dinero al exterior e invertir en un ETF de bonos globales o del tesoro de EEUU de bajo riesgo. Vamos a tener nuestra inversion en USD, liquidez alta aunque puede ser costosa si involucra mover fondos en el exterior debido a las comisiones. El riesgo es bajo. Hay que tener en cuenta los impuestos, especialmente por la moneda y el hecho de ser en el extranjero en el segundo caso.
Como se puede apreciar, en estas tensiones entre todos estos (y otros) atributos, hay juegos entre retornos esperados y "primas" (costos) que hay que pagar. Por ejemplo, por operar un instrumento poco liquido, tenemos la "prima de liquidez" que se refiere a los costos extra de por ejemplo, comprar un instrumento mas caro porque no hay vendedores a un precio mas barato. Otro ejemplo es la "prima de inversiones extranjeras", donde aumentan nuestros gastos de movimiento de fondos e impositivos. Incluso hay limitaciones con respecto al capital: algunas inversiones son poco viables si tenemos muy poco o demasiado capital para invertir, ya sea por mínimos requeridos o porque no hay liquidez suficiente en el instrumento que nos interesa.
Los instrumentos mas comunes que debemos aprender
Aca simplemente voy a listar los instrumentos que deberíamos tener en nuestra caja de herramientas de inversión, con un breve comentario de cada uno explicando que usos tiene y de que se trata.
Plazo fijo: rendimientos fijos a plazo conocido. No necesita mucha explicación. Hay que tener mucho cuidado con las tasas nominales vs las tasas reales para ver si convienen o no.
Dolar: refugio de valor por excelencia, pero como el plazo fijo hay veces que conviene y veces que puede ser una mala opción para nuestro perfil.
Cauciones: inversion prácticamente libre de riesgo, como un plazo fijo pero de mas corto plazo. Rara vez las tasas reales son positivas, pero son buenos instrumentos para los que tienen dinero ocioso en la bolsa o para los que quieren apalancarse (invertir con plata prestada) en el corto plazo
Fondos comunes de inversion: dejo un link con introducción. Son instrumentos muy flexibles para inversiones mas pasivas (lo opuesto a inversion activa, en la que debemos estarle encima de manera constante, dia a dia por ej.). Son todo un mundo, ya que al estar compuestos por distintos instrumentos (por ej. acciones, o plazos fijos, etc) cada FCI requiere su propio análisis.
Criptomonedas: activos descentralizados y anónimos que pueden ser útiles para especular o para hacer transacciones por fuera del sistema. También como moneda de cambio o de inversion. Buscar posts sobre CeFi (Centralized finance) y DeFi (Decentralized finance) en el sub, podemos poner nuestras criptos a trabajar en prestamos tipo plazo fijo o en fondos con rendimientos variables. Ejemplos: Bitcoin, Ethereum.
Stablecoins: son criptos que suelen estar atadas de alguna manera u otra al valor del dolar o algún activo mas estable, haciéndolas mas atractivas para perfiles mas conservadores. Igual que las criptos, permiten usarse para cambiar de moneda o inversiones, asi como para hacer transacciones y fondeos. Ejemplos: DAI, USDT.
Acciones (renta variable): nos permite participar en las ganancias de una empresa. Alto riesgo, aunque hay matices dependiendo de la empresa, sector, pais, contexto, etc. Puede ser acciones locales o podemos operar en el exterior directamente y acceder a acciones de todo el mundo.
Bonos (renta fija): son instrumentos con flujos de fondo conocidos. Los riesgos son mayormente de default (escenario de no pago) y de crisis de confianza que pueden hacer bajar los precios (puede ser oportunidad de compra o punto costoso de venta para el tenedor).
CEDEARs: son instrumentos locales en pesos pero que representan acciones del exterior. Nos permite invertir en una gran colección de empresas grandes, mayormente de EEUU pero también de Brazil y las empresas argentinas mas grandes (Mercado Libre y Globant). Tienen ventajas en costos operativos para inversores minoristas en Argentina.
Opciones: son contratos de compra/venta a precios prefijados. Hay infinidad de estrategias, desde lo mas especulativo y de alto riesgo, a cosas muy conservadoras como usarlo como seguro contra la baja de una acción que tenemos en cartera. Por ejemplo, podemos pagar una prima (un costo fijo) por asegurarnos de limitar las perdidas de una acción que tengamos en caso que baje, durante un plazo de tiempo. También nos permite apostar a la baja de una acción! Y apalancarnos, en el sentido de que podemos ganar exposición a mas capital del que tenemos, multiplicando las subas (y las bajas, claro).
ETFs: instrumento que solo se puede operar en el exterior. Como los Fondos Comunes de Inversion, hay de todos los sabores y colores, permitiéndonos invertir de manera diversificada en sectores, países enteros, tendencias de inversion como energias renovables o automatización, grupos de bonos de cierta calidad crediticia, etc.
El rol del broker y el mercado
La mayoría de estos instrumentos se acceden a través de un broker, que es una empresa que nos permite acceso al mercado. Los instrumentos relacionados a crypto se acceden generalmente via exchanges. Para mas información sobre brokers o exchanges, buscar por el sub. En ambos casos, debemos tener presente que comisiones vamos a tener al operar, que instrumentos tiene cada broker, su reputación, atención al cliente, participación en nuevas emisiones y varias cosas mas. Es bastante común tener cuenta comitente (el análogo a una cuenta bancaria, donde en vez de dinero, también podemos tener títulos como acciones, etc) en varios brokers! El mercado en si, no es mas que el medio electrónico donde se intercambian la mayoría de los títulos listados. Este intercambio se hace mediante oferta y demanda, donde tienen prioridad los que quieren comprar a mayor precio y los que quieren vender a menor precio, y luego los que llegan antes en ese orden. Una vez que se matchea el precio de compra, con el precio de venta, se concreta la operación y se intercambian títulos por dinero, determinando así el precio del activo en cuestión. En este mercado, participan todos los inversores, desde un inversor minorista físico buscando timbear unos pesitos o invertir sus ahorros, hasta empresas que emiten deuda o acciones para financiar su operación. Luego tenemos grandes inversores como inversores institucionales, bancos o empresas de seguros que buscan invertir el capital de sus clientes así como provincias y países que buscan financiarse emitiendo bonos.
El perfil del inversor, emociones y disciplina
Ya sabemos entonces que las distintas inversiones van a tener su nivel de riesgo, entre otras limitaciones. El desafío ahora es intentar asegurarnos de que el nivel de riesgo requerido para una inversion, sea adecuado para el inversor. Por qué es importante que el perfil de inversor este en consonancia con la inversion? Porque cuando hay ruido, las emociones nos pueden llevar a romper nuestra estrategia inicial que tan cuidadosamente planeamos. Si no tenemos la disciplina, vamos a hacer estragos. Cabe destacar que esto puede suceder cuando el riesgo de la inversion es mas alto que el que el inversor esta dispuesto a tolerar, asi como en el caso inverso. Esto se puede ilustrar con dos ejemplos:
Compramos CEDEARs de MSFT con el objetivo de sacarnos de encima los pesos y dejarlos en algún lado dolarizado para uso en algunos años, de paso sacando una ganancia. Sin embargo, no nos dimos cuenta que los CEDEARs son instrumentos altamente volátiles, ya que combinan la volatilidad del tipo de cambio, con la volatilidad de la acción subyacente. Un día, el dolar baja abruptamente por alguna medida y al mismo tiempo la empresa presenta balances en EEUU. Vemos que el precio del CEDEAR esta mostrando -10% en la apertura del mercado. A la media hora vemos -15% y temiendo por nuestro capital ,decidimos vender, ya que parece no tener piso. A los 6 meses, el CEDEAR esta 50% arriba del valor al que vendimos y nos queremos morir. Que sucedió? No respetamos la estrategia original. Pero por qué? No necesitábamos esos pesos. Analizamos la empresa y parecia solida. Sin embargo, al momento de ver esa volatilidad diaria, las emociones nos dominaron y vendimos. Esto es una señal de que algo en la inversion original (en este caso el riesgo), no es acorde al perfil del inversor.
Supongamos que somos una persona joven, con buenos prospectos de crecimiento en nuestro laburo y queremos invertir nuestro capital. Como todavia no tenemos muchas obligaciones, nos sobra un buen monto cada mes para invertir. Decidimos ponerlo en plazo fijo todos los meses. Al año, nos damos cuenta que si tuvimos suerte, apenas le ganamos a la inflación. En este caso no vamos a hacer cagadas en el medio de la inversion, pero nos damos cuenta del costo de oportunidad perdido al comparar con haber invertido en instrumentos mas rendidores como acciones. Al evaluar esta situación, decidimos elegir otra estrategia para nuestra próxima inversion.
Para intentar determinar nuestro perfil de inversor podemos utilizar tests online. Si bien nos pueden dar una idea, es esperable que hasta no tener las manos en la masa, no nos demos cuenta de cual es realmente nuestro perfil. Una ultima cuestión a tener en cuenta con respecto al perfil, es que si bien el riesgo es uno de los items mas importantes a descubrir, no es el único. Otro importante por ejemplo, es el plazo. Podemos pensar que estamos a largo plazo, pero si estamos mirando nuestra inversion dia a día, tenemos una disonancia. Otro es el nivel de conocimiento de los instrumentos a operar en la estrategia. Si nos metemos a compravender futuros sin tener mucha idea de la mecánica, aumentamos exponencialmente las chances de que salga todo mal, por mas que el resto de la estrategia este delineada cuidadosamente.
La importancia de la diversificación
Diversificar significa reducir o eliminar riesgos, mediante la combinación de varios instrumentos. Vamos a dar varios ejemplos en vez de entrar en definiciones:
Supongamos que queremos apostar a la recuperación de los cruceros luego de la pandemia del COVID. Una opción es ir y comprar acciones de RCL (Royal Caribbean). Sin embargo, una alternativa menos riesgosa, es comprar varias acciones de cruceros que sean representativas del mercado: RCL (Royal Caribbean), CCL (Carnival Cruises), NCLH (Norwegian Cruises). De esta manera, estamos mitigando el riesgo de una unica empresa.
Supongamos que queremos invertir en acciones de Brazil, porque nos parece que el pais tiene mucho potencial de convertirse en un mercado del primer mundo. En este caso, podríamos comprar las empresas mas representativas de Brazil, como Vale, Banco Bradesco, Petrobras o Banco Itaú, y asi sucesivamente (por ej, 10 empresas). Si bien estaríamos diversificados, hay un instrumento mas apropiado para eso que es un ETF como el EWZ, una pseudo-acción, que esta compuesta por cientos de las empresas mas grandes de Brazil. De esta manera, no solo diversificamos muchísimo mas (prácticamente la perdida es nula si una empresa quiebra), sino que la gestión es mas sencilla al ser un único activo.
En todos los casos estamos reduciendo riesgo a cambio de retornos menos volátiles, y por ende sacrificando situaciones de muy altos retornos pero también eliminando situaciones de grandes perdidas (ej, una empresa quiebra). Un concepto muy importante asociado a la diversificación, es la correlación. La correlación es una medida estadística de que tan similar es el movimiento de una variable con respecto a otra. Va desde -1 que significa correlación perfecta inversa (ej, cuando uno sube en un 5%, el otro baja en 5%), 0 que significa que no hay correlación y 1 que significa correlación perfecta (ej, cuando uno sube 5%, el otro sube 5%). Cuanto mas correlacionados están dos instrumentos, menos diversificación obtenemos al combinarlos y viceversa. Esto quiere decir que si tenemos una cartera con 50% de un instrumento A y 50% de otro instrumento B, el nivel de diversificación real que vamos a tener, va a depender de la correlación entre A y B. Si están perfectamente correlacionados, la diversificación es nula. En cambio, si su correlación es 0 o menor, el beneficio es mucho mayor. Si volvemos a nuestro ejemplo de los cruceros, si bien estamos diversificando el riesgo de una empresa, no estamos diversificando el riesgo del sector (esto es a proposito), donde todas las acciones relacionadas con cruceros tienen alta correlación, ni tampoco estamos diversificando el riesgo del mercado, ya que ninguna empresa esta aislada y todas las acciones dependen entre si: para construir un crucero necesito materiales para fabricarlo, necesito contratar gente, necesito capital y prestamos, necesito que la gente tenga plata y este dispuesta a gastarla en cruceros, y un gran etcétera.
Armando un portfolio (cartera) acorde a nuestros objetivos
Una vez que tenemos nuestras posibles inversiones, vamos a agarrar nuestro capital y decidir como distribuirlo. Nuestra cartera puede tener un mix de inversiones de distintos horizontes, en distintos instrumentos, con distintos niveles de riesgo y porcentajes acordes. Es muy importante tener en cuenta el nivel de riesgo de nuestra cartera en total, viendo los niveles de correlación entre los activos que tenemos. Por ejemplo, es muy común incorporar una parte de nuestra cartera en cash o en renta fija de bajo riesgo, para tener baja correlación con las acciones o correlación inversa en el caso de los bonos. Esto se debe a que cuando las acciones caen, los inversores aversos al riesgo, suelen vender y comprar bonos. Una teoria muy usada para aprender sobre el análisis de portfolios es el modelo CAPM, que no voy a profundizar aca pero les dejo la punta para investigar si quieren darle un enfoque mas cuantitativo a la diversificación de la cartera. Cabe aclarar que es un modelo anticuado (el primer modelo de hecho) pero no es menos util. El armado de portfolios es toda una ciencia y se estudia bajo lo que se llama MPT (Modern Portfolio Theory).
Como evaluar las decisiones de inversion
Repitan conmigo: para evaluar que tan buena o mala fue una inversion tiene tanto o mas peso el proceso de decision al ingresar y al salir de la inversion, que el resultado (retorno) de la misma. Estamos intentando evitar dos escenarios, que son MUY problemáticos para los inversores y tenemos que tratar de identificarlos a toda costa:
Una inversion nos puede salir bien, aunque hayamos hecho todo mal. Esto se suele resumir en el dicho popular "todos somos genios cuando la bolsa esta subiendo".
Una inversion nos puede salir mal, aunque hayamos hecho todo bien. Esto se debe a que en inversiones de riesgo, lo que estamos haciendo es tratando de manejar riesgos y retornos, pero no controlamos cuales de los eventos terminan sucediendo en la practica.
En el primer caso, el problema es que probablemente lleguemos a conclusiones incorrectas, reforzando nuestro esquema de decision erróneo, y en algún momento nos llevemos una sorpresa desagradable. Mientras que en el segundo caso, el problema es que probablemente nos desalentemos y dejemos de invertir aunque íbamos por el camino correcto. Vamos con un ejemplo de cada uno:
"Me gustan las películas de Disney, voy a comprar unas acciones". A la semana, Disney lanza una serie nueva que tiene mucho potencial y la acción sube 10%. Naturalmente, al ver esta ganancia en el corto plazo, nos olvidamos que nos metimos en Disney por cuestiones marketineras en vez de por cuestiones de análisis serio de la empresa, y nos creemos que somos unos capos. "Claro, era obvio que iba a subir". Satisfechos con el resultado, seguimos con nuestra metodologia: "El futuro son los autos eléctricos, yo me mando y compro Tesla, no puede fallar". Al dia siguiente, Elon Musk twittea que van a abandonar las operaciones en China por nuevas tarifas impuestas por el gobierno Chino y la acción cae 20% en un dia. En pánico, vendemos todo y no entendemos que pasó. "El mercado es una timba", gritamos, acompañado de varios insultos, y juramos nunca mas invertir nuestro dinero mientras vamos a la cueva de confianza a pagar un tremendo sobreprecio por el dolar blue.
"Analicé todos los balances recientes de Apple. La empresa tiene números sólidos y grandes proyectos. Las perspectivas de crecimiento, tanto desde los fundamentals como desde el consenso del mercado en los precios (gráficos) son excelentes. Validé mis análisis contra otros análisis de varias fuentes, enriqueciendo mis hipótesis y validando aún mas mis proyecciones. Acordemente, voy a poner una parte importante de mi capital en acciones de AAPL". Al mes, cae un avión en el medio de la asamblea de inversores matando a todos los presentes de la junta directiva, incluido el CEO y a Warren Buffet que pasaba por ahí cerca. La acción colapsa -30% al dia siguiente. Frustrados por semejante baja inesperado, vendemos nuestra posición. "El mercado es una timba", gritamos, acompañado de varios insultos, y juramos nunca mas invertir nuestro dinero mientras vamos a la cueva de confianza a pagar un tremendo sobreprecio por el dolar blue.
Esto no quiere decir que no debemos evaluar una inversion sobre la marcha y post cierre de la misma. Muchas veces podemos aprender cosas útiles. Pero el proceso de aprendizaje tiene que estar atado al proceso de toma de decisiones y de gestión de riesgo, no de intentar predecir eventos aleatorios. Después de todo, la gestión de riesgo es justamente eso: intentar predecir qué eventos aleatorios, fuera de nuestro control, se pueden dar y con que probabilidad, y no si se van a dar o no y cuando.
Recomiendo seguir con este curso para intentar determinar que perfil de inversión va mas de acuerdo con nuestra capacidad, tiempo y objetivos. Una vez que tengamos claro estos principios, el siguiente paso sería familiarizarnos con la mecánica de la operación en el mercado y los distintos instrumentos. Espero que les haya servido y cualquier comentario, duda, cosa me avisan en los comentarios. Mucha suerte en este camino que recién empieza ;)
You've probably been hearing a lot about Bitcoin recently and are wondering what's the big deal? Most of your questions should be answered by the resources below but if you have additional questions feel free to ask them in the comments. It all started with the release of the release of Satoshi Nakamoto's whitepaper however that will probably go over the head of most readers so we recommend the following videos for a good starting point for understanding how bitcoin works and a little about its long term potential:
Limited Supply - There will only ever be 21,000,000 bitcoins created and they are issued in a predictable fashion, you can view the inflation schedule here. Once they are all issued Bitcoin will be truly deflationary. The halving countdown can be found here.
Open source - Bitcoin code is fully auditable. You can read the source code yourself here.
Accountable - The public ledger is transparent, all transactions are seen by everyone.
Decentralized - Bitcoin is globally distributed across thousands of nodes with no single point of failure and as such can't be shut down similar to how Bittorrent works. You can even run a node on a Raspberry Pi.
Censorship resistant - No one can prevent you from interacting with the bitcoin network and no one can censor, alter or block transactions that they disagree with, see Operation Chokepoint.
Push system - There are no chargebacks in bitcoin because only the person who owns the address where the bitcoins reside has the authority to move them.
Low fee scaling - On chain transaction fees depend on network demand and how much priority you wish to assign to the transaction. Most wallets calculate on chain fees automatically but you can view current fees here and mempool activity here. On chain fees may rise occasionally due to network demand, however instant micropayments that do not require confirmations are happening via the Lightning Network, a second layer scaling solution currently rolling out on the Bitcoin mainnet.
Borderless - No country can stop it from going in/out, even in areas currently unserved by traditional banking as the ledger is globally distributed.
Portable - Bitcoins are digital so they are easier to move than cash or gold. They can even be transported by simply memorizing a string of words for wallet recovery (while cool this method is generally not recommended due to potential for insecure key generation by inexperienced users. Hardware wallets are the preferred method for new users due to ease of use and additional security).
Bitcoin.org and BuyBitcoinWorldwide.com are helpful sites for beginners. You can buy or sell any amount of bitcoin (even just a few dollars worth) and there are several easy methods to purchase bitcoin with cash, credit card or bank transfer. Some of the more popular resources are below, also check out the bitcoinity exchange resources for a larger list of options for purchases.
Here is a listing of local ATMs. If you would like your paycheck automatically converted to bitcoin use Bitwage. Note: Bitcoins are valued at whatever market price people are willing to pay for them in balancing act of supply vs demand. Unlike traditional markets, bitcoin markets operate 24 hours per day, 365 days per year. Preev is a useful site that that shows how much various denominations of bitcoin are worth in different currencies. Alternatively you can just Google "1 bitcoin in (your local currency)".
Securing your bitcoins
With bitcoin you can "Be your own bank" and personally secure your bitcoins OR you can use third party companies aka "Bitcoin banks" which will hold the bitcoins for you.
If you prefer to "Be your own bank" and have direct control over your coins without having to use a trusted third party, then you will need to create your own wallet and keep it secure. If you want easy and secure storage without having to learn computer security best practices, then a hardware wallet such as the Trezor, Ledger or ColdCard is recommended. Alternatively there are many software wallet options to choose from here depending on your use case.
If you prefer to let third party "Bitcoin banks" manage your coins, try Gemini but be aware you may not be in control of your private keys in which case you would have to ask permission to access your funds and be exposed to third party risk.
Note: For increased security, use Two Factor Authentication (2FA) everywhere it is offered, including email! 2FA requires a second confirmation code to access your account making it much harder for thieves to gain access. Google Authenticator and Authy are the two most popular 2FA services, download links are below. Make sure you create backups of your 2FA codes.
As mentioned above, Bitcoin is decentralized, which by definition means there is no official website or Twitter handle or spokesperson or CEO. However, all money attracts thieves. This combination unfortunately results in scammers running official sounding names or pretending to be an authority on YouTube or social media. Many scammers throughout the years have claimed to be the inventor of Bitcoin. Websites like bitcoin(dot)com and the btc subreddit are active scams. Almost all altcoins (shitcoins) are marketed heavily with big promises but are really just designed to separate you from your bitcoin. So be careful: any resource, including all linked in this document, may in the future turn evil. Don't trust, verify. Also as they say in our community "Not your keys, not your coins".
Where can I spend bitcoins?
Check out spendabit or bitcoin directory for millions of merchant options. Also you can spend bitcoin anywhere visa is accepted with bitcoin debit cards such as the CashApp card. Some other useful site are listed below.
Mining bitcoins can be a fun learning experience, but be aware that you will most likely operate at a loss. Newcomers are often advised to stay away from mining unless they are only interested in it as a hobby similar to folding at home. If you want to learn more about mining you can read more here. Still have mining questions? The crew at /BitcoinMining would be happy to help you out. If you want to contribute to the bitcoin network by hosting the blockchain and propagating transactions you can run a full node using this setup guide. If you would prefer to keep it simple there are several good options. You can view the global node distribution here.
Just like any other form of money, you can also earn bitcoins by being paid to do a job.
You can also earn bitcoins by participating as a market maker on JoinMarket by allowing users to perform CoinJoin transactions with your bitcoins for a small fee (requires you to already have some bitcoins.
The following is a short list of ongoing projects that might be worth taking a look at if you are interested in current development in the bitcoin space.
One Bitcoin is quite large (hundreds of £/$/€) so people often deal in smaller units. The most common subunits are listed below:
one bitcoin is equal to 100 million satoshis
1,000 per bitcoin
used as default unit in recent Electrum wallet releases
1,000,000 per bitcoin
colloquial "slang" term for microbitcoin (μBTC)
100,000,000 per bitcoin
smallest unit in bitcoin, named after the inventor
For example, assuming an arbitrary exchange rate of $10000 for one Bitcoin, a $10 meal would equal:
For more information check out the Bitcoin units wiki. Still have questions? Feel free to ask in the comments below or stick around for our weekly Mentor Monday thread. If you decide to post a question in /Bitcoin, please use the search bar to see if it has been answered before, and remember to follow the community rules outlined on the sidebar to receive a better response. The mods are busy helping manage our community so please do not message them unless you notice problems with the functionality of the subreddit. Note: This is a community created FAQ. If you notice anything missing from the FAQ or that requires clarification you can edit it here and it will be included in the next revision pending approval. Welcome to the Bitcoin community and the new decentralized economy!
If you are new to investing into Cryptocurrencies this summary might help you.
Knowing basic terms:
You'll stumble across a lot of terms and expressions some are of technical & some of financial nature, for example:
What actually is the blockchain, how does Bitcoin work under the hood, what is proof of stake...?
It's also important to know what are some basic terms concerning investing in general:
marketcap, volume, liquidity, dollar cost average...
Following Crypto News:
May it be our beloved cc, twitter, big new-sites like cointelegraph - stay up to date. Knowing what is going on in the sphere can give you an edge but also mind the saying "buy the rumor, sell the news"!
Having an investment strategy:
Strategies will help you to control your emotions - act as rational as possible.
Define goals at what pricepoint you want to buy and when to sell an asset (entrance/exit strategies).
Don't buy or sell all your coins at once - do it in smaller steps because you never know when the price is right (use methods like Dollar cost averaging).
Patience: in this fast reacting market everybody chases quick money but if you wait for a strategy to pay off, or that a price recovers to recoup losses it can take weeks, months, years.
Don't chase pumps - it's often already over if a coin has pumped and you'll end up as "bagholder" buying in at high prices.
Don't invest more than you are willing to lose (it even hurts to lose small portions of money so be careful and responsible)
Diversify - don't put all eggs in one basket. Split your investments up into Coins that already are etablished, like BTC, ETH, add some promising Altcoins and only a small portion of moonshots for gambling...
Be prepared & don't get scammed:
Use apps like blockfolio or coinstats to track prices on your mobile device or visit webpages like coingecko and coinmarketcap.
Use Hardware wallets like Ledger & Trezor to store your assets safely - remember not your keys not your coins...
Don't leave too much money on exchanges.
Write always down your passwords, passphrases and seed words (best on paper away from your computer). You'll regret if you don't.
Never ever send someone those private information, don't reply to uninitiated chats or open suspicious mails.
Watch out for "Crypto gurus" promoting their pump and dump schemes.
There have been many recent posts about the blackmail email scam, so I have written this post and will keep it stickied until the posts about the scam die down. Blackmail email scams have that name because they started as an email spam campaign, however there have also been reports of these scams being sent via SMS and physical mail. If you are reading this because you have received one of these emails and you are worried, you can stop worrying. The blackmail email scam is a spam campaign that is sent out to thousands of addresses at a time. The threats are lies and you do not have anything to worry about. In many cases, the emails will contain some sort of privileged information about you such as your name, part or all of your phone number, and your password.The emails may also look like they were sent from your own email address. The data is gathered from data breaches, and if the email looks like it came from your account that is due to email spoofing. You can use the service Have I Been Pwned? to see if you are in any publicly known data breaches. If you receive an email that contains a password that you currently use, you should immediately change that. Current recommended password guidelines say that you should use a different, complex password for every account. You can generate and save passwords using a password manager for convenience. You should also be using two factor authentication using an app like Google Authenticator instead of receiving codes through SMS. Here are some news articles about this scam. Here is a story from Brian Krebs, and here is a story from the New York Times. Below are a few examples, but if you receive an email that is similar but not the same as the examples you see, that does not matter and does not mean that the email is real. The spammers constantly switch up their templates in order to bypass spam filters, so it's normal to receive an email that hasn't yet been posted online.
Hey, some time ago your computer was infected with my private malware, RAT (Remote Administration Tool). I know at the time of infection your passwords was: xxxxxxxxxxx My malware gave me full access to all your accounts, contacts and it also was possible to spy on you over your webcam. Sometimes when I was bored I was spying on you, then once you started to SATISFYING YOURSELF! At first I didn't knew how to react as I was shocked, then I decided to record you, I checked on google and found the software: Bandicam and it did the job. After that I removed my malware to not leave any traces and this email was sent from some hacked account. I can send the video of you to all your friends, contacts and publish it on social networks and the whole web. You can stop me and only I can help you out in this situation. Pay exactly 740$ in Bitcoin (BTC). It's easy to buy Bitcoin (BTC), for example here: https://paxful.com/buy-bitcoin , https://www.buybitcoinworldwide.com/ , https://www.kraken.com/ , or google another exchanger. My Bitcoin (BTC) wallet is: xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx Yes that's how the wallet looks like, copy and paste it, it's (cAsE-sEnSEtiVE) I give you 3 days time to pay. As I got access to this email account, I will know if this email has already been read, so the time is running. After receiving the payment, I will remove the video and you can life your live in peace like before. Learn from the mistake and update your browser before browsing the web next time! I know XXXX is one of your password on day of hack.. Lets get directly to the point. Not one person has paid me to check about you. You do not know me and you're probably thinking why you are getting this email? in fact, i actually placed a malware on the adult vids (adult porn) website and you know what, you visited this site to experience fun (you know what i mean). When you were viewing videos, your browser started out operating as a RDP having a key logger which provided me with accessibility to your display and web cam. immediately after that, my malware obtained every one of your contacts from your Messenger, FB, as well as email account. after that i created a double-screen video. 1st part shows the video you were viewing (you have a nice taste omg), and 2nd part displays the recording of your cam, and its you. Best solution would be to pay me $1004. We are going to refer to it as a donation. in this situation, i most certainly will without delay remove your video. My -BTC -address: 1GohL1jDz8BapZhohN2Xry6AKPq6PiJrjw [case SeNSiTiVe, copy & paste it] You could go on your life like this never happened and you will not ever hear back again from me. You'll make the payment via Bitcoin (if you do not know this, search 'how to buy bitcoin' in Google). if you are planning on going to the law, surely, this e-mail can not be traced back to me, because it's hacked too. I have taken care of my actions. i am not looking to ask you for a lot, i simply want to be paid. if i do not receive the bitcoin;, i definitely will send out your video recording to all of your contacts including friends and family, co-workers, and so on. Nevertheless, if i do get paid, i will destroy the recording immediately. If you need proof, reply with Yeah then i will send out your video recording to your 8 friends. it's a nonnegotiable offer and thus please don't waste mine time & yours by replying to this message. I know xxxxxxxxxxxx is one of your password on day of hack.. Lets get directly to the point. Not one person has paid me to check about you. You do not know me and you're probably thinking why you are getting this email? in fact, i actually placed a malware on the adult vids (adult porn) website and you know what, you visited this site to experience fun (you know what i mean). When you were viewing videos, your browser started out operating as a RDP having a key logger which provided me with accessibility to your display and web cam. immediately after that, my malware obtained every one of your contacts from your Messenger, FB, as well as email account. after that i created a double-screen video. 1st part shows the video you were viewing (you have a nice taste omg), and 2nd part displays the recording of your cam, and its you. Best solution would be to pay me $1013. We are going to refer to it as a donation. in this situation, i most certainly will without delay remove your video. My -BTC -address: 1KzA7GYSyvXCmPpojZ4qTbZGmjjbbSfwBg [case SeNSiTiVe, copy & paste it] You could go on your life like this never happened and you will not ever hear back again from me. You'll make the payment via Bitcoin (if you do not know this, search 'how to buy bitcoin' in Google). if you are planning on going to the law, surely, this e-mail can not be traced back to me, because it's hacked too. I have taken care of my actions. i am not looking to ask you for a lot, i simply want to be paid. if i do not receive the bitcoin;, i definitely will send out your video recording to all of your contacts including friends and family, co-workers, and so on. Nevertheless, if i do get paid, i will destroy the recording immediately. If you need proof, reply with Yeah then i will send out your video recording to your 8 friends. it's a nonnegotiable offer and thus please don't waste mine time & yours by replying to this message. Lets get directly to the point. Not one person has paid me to check about you. You do not know me and you're probably thinking why you are getting this email? in fact, i actually placed a malware on the adult vids (adult porn) website and you know what, you visited this site to experience fun (you know what i mean). When you were viewing videos, your browser started out operating as a RDP having a key logger which provided me with accessibility to your display and web cam. immediately after that, my malware obtained every one of your contacts from your Messenger, FB, as well as email account. after that i created a double-screen video. 1st part shows the video you were viewing (you have a nice taste omg), and 2nd part displays the recording of your cam, and its you. Best solution would be to pay me $1002. We are going to refer to it as a donation. in this situation, i most certainly will without delay remove your video. My -BTC -address: 1JXvEapcRCvywymcrYZ1rcCfLfNZKri4LP [case SeNSiTiVe, copy & paste it] You could go on your life like this never happened and you will not ever hear back again from me. You'll make the payment via Bitcoin (if you do not know this, search 'how to buy bitcoin' in Google). if you are planning on going to the law, surely, this e-mail can not be traced back to me, because it's hacked too. I have taken care of my actions. i am not looking to ask you for a lot, i simply want to be paid. if i do not receive the bitcoin;, i definitely will send out your video recording to all of your contacts including friends and family, co-workers, and so on. Nevertheless, if i do get paid, i will destroy the recording immediately. If you need proof, reply with Yeah then i will send out your video recording to your 8 friends. it's a nonnegotiable offer and thus please don't waste mine time & yours by replying to this message. Hello! I'm the software engineer who hacked into your device's OS. I've been observing you for months now. The thing is, you've been infected with malware through the adult website you visited. In case you're not familiar with it, I'll explain. The Trojan infection gives me full access and control over your computer or any other device on your local. It means that I can see everything on your screen, turn on my camera and microphone, but you do not know about it. I also have access to all your contacts, social networking data and all your correspondence. Why didn't your antivirus detect any malware? A: My malware uses a driver, I update its signatures every 4 hours to keep your antivirus silent. I have made a video showing how you satisfy yourself on the left side of the screen, and on the right side you see the video you have been watching. With one click, I can send this video to all your contacts in the email and social networks. I can also publish access to all your emails and messaging apps that you use. If you want to prevent this, at that point: Transfer $400(USD) to my bitcoin wallet (if you do not know how to do it, then type in to Google: "Purchase a bitcoin"). My Bitcoin Wallet:1EGBGBptS9yKNPYYU9qUEoPNLptee8CEq9 After getting the payment, I will destroy the video and you won't hear from me again. I will provide you 50 hours (more than two days) to pay. I have a notice that you read this email and the timer started you opened it. Don't attempt to answer me. It doesn't make any sense (the sender's address is generated by random). Filing a complaint somewhere doesn't make sense, because this email cannot be tracked, and neither can my bitcoin address. I don't make mistakes. If I find that you shared this message with someone else, the video will be distributed immediately. Good luck with that. And here are some common keywords used in the email so that this thread can be found by people Googling the email: "Marlware, international hacker group, No person has compensated, very own video clip, software on the adult, porno sitio, one of your pass word, .br, specific pixel, sexual content web portal, a malware on the adult, a malware on the, double-screen, is a reasonable price tag for our little secret, you have a good taste lmao, I placed a malware on the adult vids, your browser began operating as a RDP, had been abusing yourself in front of computer display, you are one of those people that downloaded the malicious, I made a split-screen video, While you were watching the video, your web browser acted as, malware on the porn website and guess what, an unique pixel, you jerked off while watching an online video, When you pressed the play button the virus begins saving all the things thru, ja.scr, My malicious soft started your front cam, and also send the video link to all of yourfriends, I infected your gadget with a malware and now, AnywaysI downloaded all contacts, my program quickly got into your system, To a time where you jerk off watching","For the present moment I have at my disposal all, When you arouse sexually watching porno, In such a way all needed compromising material and contact, All information to yours SNSs user accounts, You watched sexual content portal and toss","Hello! WannaCry is back! All your, in front of the screen browsing adult stuff, As you flog the dummy watching, U are going to be offered 5 days after checking this notice, RAT 68006, the damnific malware, pastime and entertainment there, not my single victim, beat the dummy, buff the muffin, choke a chicken, front camera capturing video, with you frigging, with you chaturbating, with you masturbating, web digicam, U are going to have 5 dayss, i utilize just hacked wi, pressured this trojan to, glue a pair of videos, glue two videos, the RAT, if you want me to destroy this whole video, downloaded all contacts from your computer, your list of contacts or relatives will, I made a video that shows how you masturbate, hacked you through a virus in an ad on a porn website, my illiteracy, nоt mind on my illiterаcy, I рilfered all рrivy bаckground, videоtaре with yоur masturbаtion, my delеtеrious soft, cаmеra shооt the videоtaрe, you sеlf-аbusing, Differently I will send the video to all your colleagues and friends, your front-camera made the videotape with you self-abusing, RAT 98390 malware, the minute you went to one adult page, information to contact info I discovered on your devices and remember there is a lot of these, not including Double VPN As a result, I forced my malware to hook up to a mic, web camera and catch the video from it, poisoned a number of adult sites, video clip to fit on a single tv screen, This letter has invisible monitoring program inside and i will be aware of when you are going to check, doing ur stuff and a clip u jerked to, the investigation will last, I uploaded our malicious program on your device, furthermore malware saved exactly the video you chose, its a record with your wanking, friends will see u taking proper care of yourself, Your system is controlled by the malicious program, If you were more careful while playing with yourself, that whacking off to adult web-sites is, adult website which was poisoned with my malware, nor i think that jerking off to porn sites is really a gross thing, so I dgf lmao, proof just reply to this email with, if you want me to destroy all this compromising evidence, will send your video to 5 contacts, amount in Usd that can cope with this scenario, You are welcome to contact your local authorities, If you want proof, reply with, i pride myself in being apart of an internet group, so i dgf, I take good care of my being anonymous, information related to the RAT virus, been able get in to all ur units, to all of your contacts including, search engines like goo, case sensitive, so copy,, and at this moment I, It is a non-nego, don't waste my perso, thi s mes, back while visiting, showe ring, what should you do ?, porno webpage, this embarrassing situation, navigated to the page, bare-assed, on well-known websites and publications, I got an order from someone to kill you and your family, immediately kill your family, is an explosive device, My mercenary is, explosive device detonates, triggered your webcam, piquant websites, my exploit downloaded, replenish btc wallet, instantaneously erase, actual recorded material, neglect this email, my RAT trojan, video you jerked, I used keylogger, your disk dump, malware intercepts, installed a malware, remove your video footage, RAT onto your computer, greasy stimulating actions, excentric preferrables, porn web-page, to your Tax Department, network will be DDoS, friends, WannaCry, building a protection policy, in Tax Departament, Yours service going, we pass CloudFlare, hear fake-experts, backuped phone, -1663, of your joys, digits your phone, (porno), BIG pervert, both files and scale, naughty video clips, Soy un hacker, I installed spyware, n website with teen, malware on the porn website, very own recorded material""Marlware, international hacker group, No person has compensated, very own video clip, software on the adult, porno sitio, one of your pass word, specific pixel, sexual content web portal, a malware on the adult, a malware on the, double-screen, is a reasonable price tag for our little secret, you have a good taste lmao, I placed a malware on the adult vids, your browser began operating as a RDP, had been abusing yourself in front of computer display, you are one of those people that downloaded the malicious, I made a split-screen video, While you were watching the video, your web browser acted as, malware on the porn website and guess what, an unique pixel, you jerked off while watching an online video, When you pressed the play button the virus begins saving all the things thru, ja.scr, My malicious soft started your front cam, and also send the video link to all of yourfriends, I infected your gadget with a malware and now, AnywaysI downloaded all contacts, my program quickly got into your system, To a time where you jerk off watching","For the present moment I have at my disposal all, When you arouse sexually watching porno, In such a way all needed compromising material and contact, All information to yours SNSs user accounts, You watched sexual content portal and toss","Hello! WannaCry is back! All your, in front of the screen browsing adult stuff, As you flog the dummy watching, U are going to be offered 5 days after checking this notice, RAT 68006, the damnific malware, pastime and entertainment there, not my single victim, beat the dummy, buff the muffin, choke a chicken, front camera capturing video, with you frigging, with you chaturbating, with you masturbating, web digicam, U are going to have 5 dayss, i utilize just hacked wi, pressured this trojan to, glue a pair of videos, glue two videos, the RAT, if you want me to destroy this whole video, downloaded all contacts from your computer, your list of contacts or relatives will, I made a video that shows how you masturbate, hacked you through a virus in an ad on a porn website, my illiteracy, nоt mind on my illiterаcy, I рilfered all рrivy bаckground, videоtaре with yоur masturbаtion, my delеtеrious soft, cаmеra shооt the videоtaрe, you sеlf-аbusing, Differently I will send the video to all your colleagues and friends, your front-camera made the videotape with you self-abusing, RAT 98390 malware, the minute you went to one adult page, information to contact info I discovered on your devices and remember there is a lot of these, not including Double VPN As a result, I forced my malware to hook up to a mic, web camera and catch the video from it, poisoned a number of adult sites, video clip to fit on a single tv screen, This letter has invisible monitoring program inside and i will be aware of when you are going to check, doing ur stuff and a clip u jerked to, the investigation will last, I uploaded our malicious program on your device, furthermore malware saved exactly the video you chose, its a record with your wanking, friends will see u taking proper care of yourself, Your system is controlled by the malicious program, If you were more careful while playing with yourself, that whacking off to adult web-sites is, adult website which was poisoned with my malware, nor i think that jerking off to porn sites is really a gross thing, so I dgf lmao, proof just reply to this email with, if you want me to destroy all this compromising evidence, will send your video to 5 contacts, amount in Usd that can cope with this scenario, You are welcome to contact your local authorities, If you want proof, reply with, i pride myself in being apart of an internet group, so i dgf, I take good care of my being anonymous, information related to the RAT virus, been able get in to all ur units, to all of your contacts including, search engines like goo, case sensitive, so copy,, and at this moment I, It is a non-nego, don't waste my perso, thi s mes, back while visiting, showe ring, what should you do ?, porno webpage, this embarrassing situation, navigated to the page, bare-assed, on well-known websites and publications, I got an order from someone to kill you and your family, immediately kill your family, is an explosive device, My mercenary is, explosive device detonates, triggered your webcam, piquant websites, my exploit downloaded, replenish btc wallet, instantaneously erase, actual recorded material, neglect this email, my RAT trojan, video you jerked, I used keylogger, your disk dump, malware intercepts, installed a malware, remove your video footage, RAT onto your computer, greasy stimulating actions, excentric preferrables, porn web-page, to your Tax Department, network will be DDoS, friends, WannaCry, building a protection policy, in Tax Departament, Yours service going, we pass CloudFlare, hear fake-experts, backuped phone, -1663, of your joys, digits your phone, (porno), BIG pervert, both files and scale, naughty video clips, Soy un hacker, I installed spyware, n website with teen, malware on the porn website, very own recorded material, ιs yοur ραssρhrαse, after seeing the video of you jerking off, τhιηκ οf ιτ αs α dοηατιοη, split-screen video, 𝐄𝐧𝐭𝐢𝐫𝐞 𝐯𝐢𝐝𝐞𝐨 𝐜𝐥𝐢𝐩 𝐮𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐫𝐭𝐚𝐤𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐫𝐚𝐮𝐧𝐜𝐡𝐲 𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐭𝐞𝐫𝐬, 𝐚𝐜𝐭𝐮𝐚𝐥𝐥𝐲 𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐫𝐞𝐝 𝐭𝐡𝐚𝐭 𝐩𝐨𝐫𝐧𝐨 𝐢𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐫𝐧𝐞𝐭 𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐞, 𝐇𝐨𝐰 𝐰𝐢𝐥𝐥 𝐲𝐨𝐮 𝐩𝐮𝐭 𝐭𝐨𝐠𝐞𝐭𝐡𝐞𝐫 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐩𝐚𝐲𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭"
There is a constant war being fought between goldbugs, like Peter Schiff, and Bitcoin enthusiasts so I decided to make an outline, with links, comparing and contrasting gold and Bitcoin. I made this in November of 2019 (thus the information therein is based on figures from that time) but, being scatter brained, neglected to post this for the Bitcoin community to see. The yardsticks I used to compare the two assets included the following: shipping/transactions costs, storage costs, censorship factor, settlement time, stock to flow, blockchain vs clearing house, validation, etc. I will also touch on Roosevelt's gold confiscation executive order in 1933, transporting gold during the Spanish Civil War in 1936, and the hypothetical cost for Venezuela to repatriate its gold more recently. I will provide a brief summary first then follow that with the outline I made. This information can be used as a tool for the Bitcoin community to combat some of the silly rhetoric coming from goldbugs such as Peter Schiff and James Rickards. I would like to make it clear, however, that I am not against gold and think that it performed its role as money very well in a technologically inferior era, namely Victorian times but I think Bitcoin performs the functions of money better than gold does in the current environment. I have been looking to make a contribution to the Bitcoin community and I hope this is a useful and educational tool for everyone who reads this. Summary: Shipping/transaction costs: 100 ounces of gold could be shipped for 315 dollars; the comparable dollar value in Bitcoin could be sent for 35 dollars using a non-segwit address. Using historical precendent, it would cost an estimated $32,997,989 to transport $1 billion in gold using the 3.3% fee that the Soviets charged the Spaniards in 1936; a $1 billion Bitcoin transaction moved for $690 last year by comparison. Please note that the only historic example we can provide for moving enormous sums of gold was when the government of Spain transported gold to Moscow during the Spanish Civil War in 1936. More information on this topic will be found in the notes section. Storage costs: 100 ounces of gold would require $451 per year to custody while the equivalent value of Bitcoin in dollar terms could be stored for the cost of a Ledger Nano S, $59.99. $1 billion USD value of gold would cost $2,900,000 per year while an Armory set up that is more secure would run you the cost of a laptop, $200-300. Censorship factor: Gold must pass through a 3rd party whenever it is shipped, whether for a transaction or for personal transportation. Gold will typically have to be declared and a customs duty may be imposed when crossing international borders. The key take-away is gatekeepers (customs) can halt movement of gold thus making transactions difficult. $46,000 of gold was seized in India despite the smugglers hiding it in their rectums. Settlement time: Shipping gold based on 100 ounces takes anywhere from 3-10 days while Bitcoin transactions clear in roughly 10 minutes depending on network congestion and fee size. Historic confiscation: Franklin Roosevelt confiscated and debased the paper value of gold in 1933 with Executive Order 6102. Since gold is physical in nature and value dense, it is often stored in custodial vaults like banks and so forth which act as a honeypot for rapacious governments. Stock to flow: Plan B's stock to flow model has become a favorite on twitter. Stock to flow measures the relationship between the total stock of an asset against the amount that is produced in a given year. Currently gold still has the highest value at 62 while Bitcoin sits at 50 in 2nd place. Bitcoin will overtake gold in 2024 after the next halving. Blockchain vs clearing house: gold payments historically passed through a 3rd party (clearinghouse) in order to be validated while Bitcoin transactions can be self validated through the use of a node. Key Takeaway from above- Bitcoin is vastly superior to gold in terms of cost, speed, and censorship resistance. One could theoretically carry around an enormous sum of Bitcoin on a cold card while the equivalent dollar value of gold would require a wheelbarrow...and create an enormous target on the back of the transporter. With the exception of the stock to flow ratio (which will flip in Bitcoin's favor soon), Bitcoin is superior to gold by all metrics covered. Notes: Shipping/transaction costs Gold 100 oz = 155,500. 45 x 7 = $315 to ship 100 oz gold. https://seekingalpha.com/instablog/839735-katchum/2547831-how-much-does-it-cost-to-ship-silver-and-gold https://www.coininvest.com/en/shipping-prices/ 211 tonnes Venezuela; 3.3% of $10.5 billion = 346,478,880 or 32,997,989/billion usd http://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmon/2011/08/23/how-to-get-12-billion-of-gold-to-venezuela/ (counter party risk; maduro; quotes from article) Bitcoin 18 bitcoin equivalent value; 35 USD with legacy address https://blockexplorer.com/ https://bitcoinfees.info/ 1 billion; $690 dollars https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2019/09/someone-moved-1-billion-in-a-single-bitcoin-transaction/ Storage costs Gold .29% annually; https://sdbullion.com/gold-silver-storage 100 oz – $451/year $1 billion USD value – $2,900,000/year Bitcoin Ledger Nano S - $59.00 (for less bitcoin) https://shop.ledger.com/products/ledger-nano-s/transparent?flow_country=USA&gclid=EAIaIQobChMI3ILV5O-Z5wIVTtbACh1zTAwqEAQYASABEgJ5SPD_BwE Armory - $200-300 cost of laptop for setup https://www.bitcoinarmory.com/ Censorship factor (must pass through 3rd party) Varies by country Gold will typically have to be declared and a customs duty may be imposed Key take-away is gatekeepers (customs) can halt movement of gold thus making transactions difficult $46,000 seized in India https://www.foxnews.com/travel/indian-airport-stops-29-passengers-smuggling-gold-in-their-rectums Settlement time Gold For 100 oz transaction by USPS 3-10 days (must pass through 3rd party) Bitcoin Roughly 10 minutes to be included in next block Historic confiscation-roosevelt 1933 Executive Order 6102 (forced spending, fed could ban cash, go through and get quotes) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Executive_Order_6102 “The stated reason for the order was that hard times had caused "hoarding" of gold, stalling economic growth and making the depression worse” Stock to flow; https://medium.com/@100trillionUSD/modeling-bitcoins-value-with-scarcity-91fa0fc03e25 (explain what it is and use charts in article) Gold; SF of 62 Bitcoin; SF of 25 but will double to 50 after May (and to 100 in four years) Blockchain vs clearing house Transactions can be validated by running a full node vs. third party settlement Validation Gold; https://www.goldismoney2.com/threads/cost-to-assay.6732/ (Read some responses) Bitcoin Cost of electricity to run a full node Breaking down Venezuela conundrum; http://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmon/2011/08/23/how-to-get-12-billion-of-gold-to-venezuela/ “The last (and only) known case of this kind of quantity of gold being transported across state lines took place almost exactly 75 years ago, in 1936, when the government of Spain removed 560 tons of gold from Madrid to Moscow as the armies of Francisco Franco approached. Most of the gold was exchanged for Russian weaponry, with the Soviet Union keeping 2.1% of the funds in the form of commissions and brokerage, and an additional 1.2% in the form of transport, deposit, melting, and refining expenses.” “Venezuela would need to transport the gold in several trips, traders said, since the high value of gold means it would be impossible to insure a single aircraft carrying 211 tonnes. It could take about 40 shipments to move the gold back to Caracas, traders estimated. “It’s going to be quite a task. Logistically, I’m not sure if the central bank realises the magnitude of the task ahead of them,” said one senior gold banker.” “So maybe Chávez intends to take matters into his own hands, and just sail the booty back to Venezuela on one of his own naval ships. Again, the theft risk is obvious — seamen can be greedy too — and this time there would be no insurance. Chávez is pretty crazy, but I don’t think he’d risk $12 billion that way.” “Which leaves one final alternative. Gold is fungible, and people are actually willing to pay a premium to buy gold which is sitting in the Bank of England’s ultra-secure vaults. So why bother transporting that gold at all? Venezuela could enter into an intercontinental repo transaction, where it sells its gold in the Bank of England to some counterparty, and then promises to buy it all back at a modest discount, on condition that it’s physically delivered to the Venezuelan central bank in Caracas. It would then be up to the counterparty to work out how to get 211 tons of gold to Caracas by a certain date. That gold could be sourced anywhere in the world, and transported in any conceivable manner — being much less predictable and transparent, those shipments would also be much harder to hijack. How much of a discount would a counterparty require to enter into this kind of transaction? Much more than 3.3%, is my guess. And again, it’s not entirely clear who would even be willing to entertain the idea. Glencore, perhaps?” “But here’s one last idea: why doesn’t Chávez crowdsource the problem? He could simply open a gold window at the Banco Central de Venezuela, where anybody at all could deliver standard gold bars. In return, the central bank would transfer to that person an equal number of gold bars in the custody of the Bank of England, plus a modest bounty of say 2% — that’s over $15,000 per 400-ounce bar, at current rates. It would take a little while, but eventually the gold would start trickling in: if you’re willing to pay a constant premium of 2% over the market price for a good, you can be sure that the good in question will ultimately find its way to your door. And the 2% cost of acquiring all that gold would surely be much lower than the cost of insuring and shipping it from England. It would be an elegant market-based solution to an artificial and ideologically-driven problem; I daresay Chávez might even chuckle at the irony of it. He’d just need to watch out for a rise in Andean banditry, as thieves tried to steal the bars on their disparate journeys into Venezuela.”
Shipping Starting at $5.5 with tracking but free if you buy enough. Should take 7-14 working days if it takes longer contact me and I will initiate an investigation. If they conclude the package is lost I will do a full refund but it will take up to a month so you'll need patience. Faster courier services are available with starting ranges of $40-85 increasing by weight, and DHL can access some areas my local post administration cannot. SEE HERE for where I am allowed to ship to by airmail. For instance, I can ship to all of the US now but I still can't ship to Russia, South Africa or South America. Please check first before purchasing to avoid disappointment. Payment
Paypal FF no notes Paypal will charge an additional $5 for international payments.
Paypal G&S +4.4%
Bitcoin - I can offer better prices due to the fair exchange rate and no fees, more willing to negotiate too.
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Monero Community Workgroup is preparing for the large growth ahead
Diego (u/rehrar), Doug (u/needmoney90), and Justin (u/SamsungGalaxayPlayer) would like to share some exciting news regarding the Monero Community Workgroup (MCW). The Monero community is growing, and so is our support and group of volunteers. The TL;DR is that you can expect some cool things as we grow.
Some MCW History
The MCW initially began as the Monero Marketing Workgroup in March 2017. Diego was interested in helping grow the Monero community, so he contacted Justin and set up the MoneroMarketing subreddit. At the time, the idea of a Monero marketing initiative shocked many in the community, who greatly appreciated Monero's general distance from the marketing efforts by many ICOs and scams around that time. The Monero Marketing Workgroup focused mostly on preparing educational materials and getting people involved to work on Monero-related initiatives. Shortly after the workgroup began, it transitioned into an area that needed more love: community organization and communication. Up until this point, the Monero community was focused around the developer meetings and the Monero subreddit. While these are still highly relevant in the Monero ecosystem (for good reason), there wasn't a great way for people to stay updated with the latest news and to discuss non-development items. The Monero Community Crowdfunding System (at the time Forum Funding System) submissions weren't discussed in the same way that they are today, and there was no central Community Workgroup to help bring initiatives together. It was obvious that with a larger, more diverse Monero community, a dedicated set of resources would be necessary to connect all these projects together. The Monero Marketing Workgroup became the Monero Community Workgroup during the first Community Workgroup meeting on 18 June 2017. These meetings have largely occurred every other Saturday ever since and serve as an essential community service to discuss CCS proposals, hear workgroup updates and news, and discuss new ideas. The Community Workgroup channel (#monero-community) is used for many other purposes, including other scheduled meetings on deemed-necessary items of interest and regular feedback, questions, and chat. On 7 October 2017, the workgroup hosted its first Coffee Chat, a casual conversation covering the month's recent news and most important discussion topics. These Coffee Chats help humanize the Monero community, who until this point typically were only known by their pseudonyms. The MCW played a part in the Monero Konferenco, Critical Decentralization Cluster at the Chaos Communication Congress, and Monero Village at Defcon livestreams and derived content. It also hosts Breaking Monero, a series that features members from the Monero Research Lab who discuss Monero's limitations. A year after the MCW became its new name, the newly-founded Monero Outreach Workgroup took over many of its initial ambitions in June 2018. Other related workgroups like Monero Ecosystem have their own communities and functions.
The Community Keeps Growing
The Monero communities are significantly larger than they were back in early-2017, and they keep on growing. In early-2017, there were no mobile wallets, the GUI was only 3 months old, there were far fewer exchanges, etc. Today, Monero has one of the largest, most respected, and most passionate communities. We have the third largest number of developers of any cryptocurrency project, we are the only project with our own DEF CON village, and we are one of the few names that everybody knows. Awesome work to everyone around, truly. With larger communities comes more work. The community deserves reliable, appropriate resources to sustain this growth. In a decentralized community, this is difficult. Monero Core provides some essential services such as the CCS, getmonero.org, Mattermost, and GitLab. However, they have been unable to meet the growing needs of the community alone. Thus, the MCW has been happy to support other needs to the extent possible: we discuss CCS proposals during our meetings, host several servers, organize Coffee Chats and conference talks, and more, along with efforts of other workgroups. These have become such a significant undertaking, and that's a good thing. As Monero continues to set the gold standard for cryptocurrencies the expectations keep growing. It's awesome to be a part of something where so many people care.
The MCW has grown too much for the three of us to organize all the resources we need, let alone the needs of everyone in the Monero communities and workgroups. Thus, we are furthering our commitment and offering substantially more services in the coming months. To get there, we need your support to fill volunteer leadership and support positions. Expect the following dedicated services from us:
Jitsi server with higher framerate and resolutions than Jitsi Meet, so that our Coffee Chats, conferences, and other events are better quality than before.
NextCloud to safely and securely collaborate on blog posts, share files, and more.
Sandstorm and Wekan kanban board (open source Trello copy) to keep track of, propose, and assign tasks and projects.
Chatwoot to provide tailored support for Monero users with a volunteer support community (also a good learning exercise).
Mastodon to communicate about Monero and other news, so we aren't dependent on Twitter's policies and security.
Flarum forum for Monero news and discussions, so we aren't dependent on Reddit.
We need your help to make this happen! We will form "task forces" to focus on certain areas like marketing, system administration, meetings, moderation, and finance. If you have any of these skills, please join #monero-community and say hi, or shoot us an email ([email protected])! Doug, Diego, and Justin feel that these changes will allow the Monero community to grow in new ways and continue collaborating. The community consists of many workgroups that focus on projects that they are interested in, and we want to support the efforts of these communities. To allow these changes, Justin will form an LLC, with him and Doug being officially on the board, and Diego taking an advisory role. Creating a legal entity serves two distinct purposes. First, it allows us to aggregate payments from many people into a single entity to pay the costs for hosting various community servers/services. This greatly reduces our own workload and out of pocket payment. Secondly, it allows us to aggregate multiple social media handles that are currently controlled by individuals under a single entity, to reduce the "Bus Factor." Of course, the MCW will remain very much grounded in the ideals that made that made it great in the first place. And the entity will always support the Monero communities, never claim to fully represent everyone involved in Monero. It can only ever represent the efforts of those involved. Current and future goals of the MCW include:
Provide resources as necessary and reasonable, such as communication platforms
Organize discussions to promote communication, such as Community Meetings and Coffee Chats
Promote positive culture through events, such as with Coffee Chats, the Monero Konferenco, the Moneoversary, and the Monero DEF CON Village
Support other Monero workgroups and Monero ecosystem projects
Provide mechanisms to collect feedback on community, developer, and research proposals
Discuss the Monero CCS ideas and otherwise support the Monero CCS
Promote Monero and privacy education and marketing
Serve as an available community mediatoarbitrator where reasonable
Communicate the broad interests of the Monero community and provide a voice where and how appropriate
Collaborate with other projects, companies, governments, and communities
Monero Community Support LLC
Q: Why does the MCW think that an LLC is needed? A: For two primary reasons. First, payments. As mentioned, there is existing digital infrastructure, currently paid out of pocket by MCW leaders. Even if a CCS proposal was to be explored, it would make personal accounting and tax reporting very difficult as assets would technically be mixed with personal assets, throwing off capital gains calculations. Up until now this has been a sacrifice of time that we were content to make, but as we continue to ramp up our goals it is becoming increasingly cumbersome, and alternative methods are needed. An LLC would be able to hold these monetary assets as its own entity, and all funds could be kept separate from personal funds, leading to much easier accounting all around. Secondly, an LLC would allow for digital infrastructure to come under the legal purview of several people, reducing the possibility for any particular person going rogue and decimating what has been built. There may be concern about bringing resources under a corporation, and that this is not in the spirit of Monero, but one thing to note is that all assets and services (noted above) are FOSS/CC. Meaning if at any time a community doesn't care for what the MCW accomplishes under this LLC, they can simply start their own infrastructure with low switching costs. Once again: EVERYTHING IS FOSS/CC. Q: Why not a nonprofit, cooperative, or other type of organization? A: While not out of the question, these take additional effort. We hope to grow into these organization types with the help of others. However certain registrations take a lot of time and effort, plus has quite significant restrictions on activities. The LLC will allow us the flexibility and convenience we need now, especially when we currently have no income anyway.
The MCW has a mountain range of opportunities ahead of it, as do all Monero communities and workgroups. We hope that our efforts are of use to you and others, and we hope that you join us in making something great :) Justin, Diego, and Doug
Eth 2.0 vs Polkadot and other musings by a fundamental investor
Spent about two hours on this post and I decided it would help the community if I made it more visible. Comment was made as a response to this
I’m trying to avoid falling into a maximalist mindset over time. This isn’t a 100% ETH question, but I’m trying to stay educated about emerging tech. Can someone help me see the downsides of diversifying into DOTs? I know Polkadot is more centralized, VC backed, and generally against our ethos here. On chain governance might introduce some unknown risks. What else am I missing? I see a bunch of posts about how Ethereum and Polkadot can thrive together, but are they not both L1 competitors?
What else am I missing?
The upsides. Most of the guys responding to you here are full Eth maxis who drank the Parity is bad koolaid. They are married to their investment and basically emotional / tribal in an area where you should have a cool head. Sure, you might get more upvotes on Reddit if you do and say what the crowd wants, but do you want upvotes and fleeting validation or do you want returns on your investment? Do you want to be these guys or do you want to be the shareholder making bank off of those guys? Disclaimer: I'm both an Eth whale and a Dot whale, and have been in crypto for close to a decade now. I originally bought ether sub $10 after researching it for at least a thousand hours. Rode to $1500 and down to $60. Iron hands - my intent has always been to reconsider my Eth position after proof of stake is out. I invested in the 2017 Dot public sale with the plan of flipping profits back to Eth but keeping Dots looks like the right short and long term play now. I am not a trader, I just take a deep tech dive every couple of years and invest in fundamentals. Now as for your concerns:
I know Polkadot is more centralized
The sad truth is that the market doesn't really care about this. At all. There is no real statistic to show at what point a coin is "decentralized" or "too centralized". For example, bitcoin has been completely taken over by Chinese mining farms for about five years now. Last I checked, they control above 85% of the hashing power, they just spread it among different mining pools to make it look decentralized. They have had the ability to fake or block transactions for all this time but it has never been in their best interest to do so: messing with bitcoin in that way would crash its price, therefore their bitcoin holdings, their mining equipment, and their company stock (some of them worth billions) would evaporate. So they won't do it due to economics, but not because they can't. That is the major point I want to get across; originally Bitcoin couldn't be messed with because it was decentralized, but now Bitcoin is centralized but it's still not messed with due to economics. It is basically ChinaCoin at this point, but the market doesn't care, and it still enjoys over 50% of the total crypto market cap. So how does this relate to Polkadot? Well fortunately most chains - Ethereum included - are working towards proof of stake. This is obviously better for the environment, but it also has a massive benefit for token holders. If a hostile party wanted to take over a proof of stake chain they'd have to buy up a massive share of the network. The moment they force through a malicious transaction a proof of stake blockchain has the option to fork them off. It would be messy for a few days, but by the end of the week the hostile party would have a large amount of now worthless tokens, and the proof of stake community would have moved on to a version of the blockchain where the hostile party's tokens have been slashed to zero. So not only does the market not care about centralization (Bitcoin example), but proof of stake makes token holders even safer. That being said, Polkadot's "centralization" is not that far off to Ethereum. The Web3 foundation kept 30% of the Dots while the Ethereum Foundation kept 17%. There are whales in Polkadot but Ethereum has them too - 40% of all genesis Ether went to 100 wallets, and many suspect that the original Ethereum ICO was sybiled to make it look more popular and decentralized than it really was. But you don't really care about that do you? Neither do I. Whales are a fact of life.
VCs are part of the crypto game now. There is no way to get rid of them, and there is no real reason why you should want to get rid of them. They put their capital at risk (same as you and me) and seek returns on their investment (same as you and me). They are both in Polkadot and Ethereum, and have been for years now. I have no issue with them as long as they don't play around with insider information, but that is another topic. To be honest, I would be worried if VCs did not endorse chains I'm researching, but maybe that's because my investing style isn't chasing hype and buying SUSHI style tokens from anonymous (at the time) developers. That's just playing hot potato. But hey, some people are good at that. As to the amount of wallets that participated in the Polkadot ICO: a little known fact is that more individual wallets participated in Polkadot's ICO than Ethereum's, even though Polkadot never marketed their ICO rounds due to regulatory reasons.
generally against our ethos here
Kool aid. Some guy that works(ed?) at Parity (who employs what, 200+ people?) correctly said that Ethereum is losing its tech lead and that offended the Ethereum hivemind. Oh no. So controversial. I'm so personally hurt by that. Some guy that has been working for free on Ethereum basically forever correctly said that Polkadot is taking the blockchain tech crown. Do we A) Reflect on why he said that? or B) Rally the mob to chase him off?
Also Parity locked their funds (and about 500+ other wallets not owned by them) and proposed a solution to recover them. When the community voted no they backed off and did not fork the chain, even if they had the influence to do so. For some reason this subreddit hates them for that, even if Parity did the 100% moral thing to do. Remember, 500+ other teams or people had their funds locked, so Parity was morally bound to try its best to recover them. Its just lame drama to be honest. Nothing to do with ethos, everything to do with emotional tribalism. Now for the missing upsides (I'll also respond to random fragments scattered in the thread):
This isn’t a 100% ETH question, but I’m trying to stay educated about emerging tech.
A good quick intro to Eth's tech vs Polkadot's tech can be found on this thread, especially this reply. That thread is basically mandatory reading if you care about your investment. Eth 2.0's features will not really kick in for end users until about 2023. That means every dapp (except DeFI, where the fees make sense due to returns and is leading the fee market) who built on Eth's layer 1 are dead for three years. Remember the trading card games... Gods Unchained? How many players do you think are going to buy and sell cards when the transaction fee is worth more than the cards? All that development is now practically worthless until it can migrate to its own shard. This story repeats for hundreds of other dapp teams who's projects are now priced out for three years. So now they either have to migrate to a one of the many unpopulated L2 options (which have their own list of problems and risks, but that's another topic) or they look for another platform, preferably one interoperable with Ethereum. Hence Polkadot's massive growth in developer activity. If you check out https://polkaproject.com/ you'll see 205 projects listed at the time of this post. About a week ago they had 202 listed. That means about one team migrated from another tech stack to build on Polkadot every two days, and trust me, many more will come in when parachains are finally activated, and it will be a complete no brainer when Polkadot 2.0 is released. Another huge upside for Polkadot is the Initial Parachain Offerings. Polkadot's version of ICOs. The biggest difference is that you can vote for parachains using your Dots to bind them to the relay chain, and you get some of the parachain's tokens in exchange. After a certain amount of time you get your Dots back. The tokenomics here are impressive: Dots are locked (reduced supply) instead of sold (sell pressure) and you still earn your staking rewards. There's no risk of scammers running away with your Ether and the governance mechanism allows for the community to defund incompetent devs who did not deliver what was promised.
Wouldn’t an ETH shard on Polkadot gain a bunch of scaling benefits that we won’t see natively for a couple years?
Yes. That is correct. Both Edgeware and Moonbeam are EVM compatible. And if the original dapp teams don't migrate their projects someone else will fork them, exactly like SUSHI did to Uniswap, and how Acala is doing to MakerDao.
Although realistically Ethereum has a 5 yr headstart and devs haven't slowed down at all
Just because it's "EVM Compatible" doesn't mean you can just plug Ethereum into Polkadot or vica versa, it just means they both understand Ethereum bytecode and you can potentially copy/paste contracts from Ethereum to Polkadot, but you'd still need to add a "bridge" between the 2 chains, so it adds additional complexity and extra steps compared to using any of the existing L2 scaling solutions
That only applies of you are thinking from an Eth maximalist perspective. But if you think from Polkadot's side, why would you need to use the bridge back to Ethereum at all? Everything will be seamless, cheaper, and quicker once the ecosystem starts to flourish.
I see a bunch of posts about how Ethereum and Polkadot can thrive together, but are they not both L1 competitors?
They are competitors. Both have their strategies, and both have their strengths (tech vs time on the market) but they are clearly competing in my eyes. Which is a good thing, Apple and Samsung competing in the cell phone market just leads to more innovation for consumers. You can still invest in both if you like. Edit - link to post and the rest of the conversation: https://www.reddit.com/ethfinance/comments/iooew6/daily_general_discussion_september_8_2020/g4h5yyq/ Edit 2 - one day later PolkaProject count is 210. Devs are getting the hint :)
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